Development of an event-linked counterfactual diagnostic evidence layer in support of the C3S Operational Attribution Office

Summary

The tender concerns the development of an event-linked counterfactual evidence layer in support of the C3S Operational Attribution Office. The work will use ECMWF forecast and reanalysis products to derive event-specific counterfactual diagnostics that provide additional evidence on how the intensity, probability or other characteristics of observed extreme events may have differed in the absence of human-induced climate change. The contracting authority intends to award a single framework agreement with a maximum duration of 18 months, to be implemented through a single multi-annual service contract expected to start at the beginning of Q1 2027.